Craig, are you getting the sense that the Coyotes are dead set on trading OEL and are eventually going to take the best offer they can get? Or is there any chance they walk away and say the offers just aren't there? (Maybe clearing salary elsewhere.....)
As far as we know, Tochett didn’t request OEL get traded. That’s who he would deal with on a daily basis. Armstrong is new and could easily say he was trying fulfill previous requests but the fits not right and he wants him to stay. He could say ownership was misguided hockey wise from previous leadership and blah blah blah. It’d wash under the rug. OEL has the character to not let this ever effect his on product.
I don't know if guys Zetterberg & Datsyuk will ever be overlooked for that long again, but late-round success is an important piece of the puzzle. Outside of Yandle & Garland (and maybe Winnik), the Coyotes haven't had much of it.
There are great picks in the 4th and 5th round, the trick is to be the team good enough to spot them and take them. That's why having a great scouting staff is important. Let's just go back half a decade, now that the dust has settled and check-out 2015 and 2014:
Brett Berard, Emil Heineman falling to 111 would be unexpected but I’d be thrilled if we got one. I think the MHL is underdrafted and had a great year. I like the league quite a bit after realizing they have full games for free on YouTube. I really like Ivan Didkovsky, Dmitry Zlodeyev, Maxim Beryozkin, and Yegor Chinakov from that league.
That's very true. Before the league sanctioned out 2nd round pick, I took to watching some SKA-1946 games on YouTube because I wanted to get a closer look at Marat Khustnutdinov. They're one of those stacked teams. They had only five regulation losses in 64 games last season, which is laughable. So I see your point. But watching games against Dynamo Moscow (not a powerhouse) I did notice the play of Didkovsky and Zlodeyev who stood out in really positive ways. I also watched Coyotes draft pick Alexander Daryin playing for Loko (a powerhouse) and he looked great, but his teammate Maxim Beryozkin really stood out.
I never would have bothered if it weren't for the COVID break, but I found myself really enjoying these games despite them being asynchronous, and broadcast in a language I don't speak (though, I'd prefer any two Russians over our TV crew, but that's another story). Much better pace of play and much more physical than I expected.
I finally understood why there are so many undrafted Russian free agents that teams end up competing for when they're in their early twenties. I know Chayka tried hard and narrowly missed out on the likes of Mikheyev, Barabanov, and Zub. These guys were in Russian Jrs in their draft years.
Responding to a question about Kuemper by immediately mentioning the missing 1st round picks seems telling to me. Can we assume he’s gently preparing us that Kuemper is going to recoup picks?
Possibly, but he also said they need to balance the desire to acquire picks with the desire to field a competitive team. Darcy is currently their best chance at fielding (icing) a competitive team.
Do you know where Capo is at in his recovery? Do you think he is a future top-4 d-man here? His name has fallen off a lot of lists of prospects, but I think he plugs right in if OEL, Goligoski, or Hjammer leave through trades.
Not sure he's ready for a top-4 role just yet, but I think he has a good shot at being in the regular rotation this season. He has fully recovered from his ACL surgery and rehab.
I get the sense Armstrong wouldn't have gone down this path of moving OEL were it now for ownership having Sullivan make calls around the league to gauge value for the incoming GM before Armstrong got here. It feels kind of like he's saddled with making the move now despite his hesitations because of potentially burned bridges.
Firing Tocchet would get him out of it. Which seems sensible, given his poor performance so far and with only 1 year left in his deal. Why trade a long-term player over a coach who's unlikely to be with us this time next year?
Why is ownership dictating which players should and shouldn’t be on the roster? Especially for an ownership group who insists they aren’t hockey people. Do they not like paying big bonus’ rather than salary spread out over a season? This seems overreaching and sounds like Buffalo 2.0
Do you get the sense that the Coyotes are willing to go below market value to move OEL? Everyone in Vancouver on reddit and twitter seem convinced that they will be getting him for cents on the dollar due to his large contract.
I wouldn't go that far. BA knows he can't devalue that asset if he hopes to jumpstart a rebuild. They may not get full value because of this crazy market, but cents on the dollar would be a mistake.
I’m assuming that when people say they like Boston’s prospects more than Vancouver’s, they mean that they like the available prospects more. Assuming each team a prospect or two that is untouchable (Podkolzin, Hoglander and Studnicka). Meaning the remaining Boston prospects (Vaakanainen and Beecher) are more appealing than the remaining Vancouver prospects (Juolevi and Rathbone)?
Few, if any are truly untouchable....for the right price.....NY got Adam Fox and he had a fabulous year. Became available because they had so much depth in that position. As a RHD it had to be tough to let that asset go. They don't grow on trees like flashy wingers seem to
Are the Coyotes looking to shed some of this salary because of financial issues related to COVID or are we looking to make these moves because of the realization that a rebuild/partial rebuild is necessary? Would we be looking to trade OEL and Kuemper if there was no pandemic and economically Meruelo was as strong as ever?
OEL yes. Kuemps no. Problem with OEL is he was given a leadership role he was not capable of handling. He does not do well in Tochs system (as far as the score sheet goes) and the PP has sucked which is where he has traditionally made some good numbers.
Put him in a different system with different coaching and no C you will find his contract more than bearable
It’s tough to piece together the tidbits we get from the national Canadian media guys. Or even to know whether they’re worth piecing together. I guess if we’re looking for a young roster player, a prospect, and a pick and we have to eat some cap dumps, we can figure things out if we remove the top prospects from each organization from the equation.
And when we factor in some tidbits from the Coyotes. We know Armstrong wants to get bigger and harder to play against. He wants culture changers. I listened to a really in-depth podcast interview with Plandowski recently. Tons of good insight there. He seems to really like Finns. Especially Finnish blueliners.
From Boston I really doubt Carlo is available in a deal like this. I’d be shocked. I could see DeBrusk, though. Jeremy Lauzon is a mean and nasty young defenseman with pretty limited upside. I could see Nick Ritchie as a cap dump. Boston cannot be happy with his terrible play in the bubble. But for us he’s as big and mean as they get these days. Boston doesn’t have a 1st this year, but they have Urho Vaakanainen who is a Finnish defenseman.
Perhaps OEL and Fischer (contract slot) for DeBrusk, Lauzon, Ritchie(dump) and Vaakanainen?
Vancouver has Virtanen as a DeBrusk roster player comparable. They’ve got Roussel as a Ritchie comparable as far as a cap dump. Juolevi is a good Vaakanainen comparable for Finnish D prospects. Closest roster D comparable to Lauzon is Stetcher, who’s much less appealing. Maybe we could get Rathbone instead, if we are willing to eat another bad contract like Baertschi. Vancouver also is without a 1st this year.
Maybe OEL and Fischer (contract slot) for Virtanen, Roussel, Baertschi, Rathbone and Juolevi?
I like DeBrusk more if I’m starting a team from scratch. If I’ve already got a small, skilled, but easy to beat team like the Coyotes, Virtanen closes the gap pretty quick. It’s a close call for me.
That’s true. Virtanen has plenty of warts. I think DeBrusk does too. I see them as highly comparable. DeBrusk has more pure skill and had proven more with better opportunities. Virtanen has more physicality and has been surprisingly productive with limited opportunities. In a vacuum, I take DeBrusk. Given the context of the Coyotes issues with a small, soft roster, I find it a bit of a close call. Ultimately I’d likely take DeBrusk gambling on upside. But Virtanen helps more immediately in the area we need, I think.
DeBrusk: 1696 minutes 5v5 29 goals, 49 points with favorable zone starts and quality linemates.
Virtanen: 1707 minutes 5v5 22 goals, 45 points with even zone splits against with worse linemates.
DeBrusk has more pure skill and can dipsey doodle better. The Coyotes already have too much of that. Virtanen is bigger, meaner, and much more direct and forceful in his game. He hits like a truck and fights. DeBrusk plays with swagger but is small and weak.
Having watched both teams quite a bit to me it's that Virtanen has too many nights as a passenger where he doesn't contribute anything. Then games where he comes in an gets 2 goals and an assist or whatever. I like that Debrusk is more consistent.
Gee, this guy really holds his cards close to his chest. The next few months are going to be wild.
He said little to nothing. That's OK. I'm looking for action, not words.
Craig, are you getting the sense that the Coyotes are dead set on trading OEL and are eventually going to take the best offer they can get? Or is there any chance they walk away and say the offers just aren't there? (Maybe clearing salary elsewhere.....)
They have to be willing to walk away if the asset gets devalued too much.
That said, bringing OEL back would be pretty awkward at this point.
That's my concern too. If other teams know we're past the point of no return they aren't going to offer as much.
Agreed.
As far as we know, Tochett didn’t request OEL get traded. That’s who he would deal with on a daily basis. Armstrong is new and could easily say he was trying fulfill previous requests but the fits not right and he wants him to stay. He could say ownership was misguided hockey wise from previous leadership and blah blah blah. It’d wash under the rug. OEL has the character to not let this ever effect his on product.
Craig, have you already spoken to Grabs about the buyout?
Nope. It's too soon. He's laying low, absorbing the news and considering what's next.
I spoke to his agent yesterday.
Thanks Craig for the response! I regret that Michael has to leave...
Me, too. Good man.
I can hardly wait to see who that 111th pick is.
Maybe the next Henrik Zetterberg.
I don't know if guys Zetterberg & Datsyuk will ever be overlooked for that long again, but late-round success is an important piece of the puzzle. Outside of Yandle & Garland (and maybe Winnik), the Coyotes haven't had much of it.
There are great picks in the 4th and 5th round, the trick is to be the team good enough to spot them and take them. That's why having a great scouting staff is important. Let's just go back half a decade, now that the dust has settled and check-out 2015 and 2014:
2015 -Rd 4 -117 - Caleb Jones
2015 -Rd 4 -120 - Mathieu Joseph
2015 -Rd 5 -123 - Conor Garland
2015 -Rd 5 -124 - Ethan Bear
2015 -Rd 5 -135 - Kirill Kaprizov
2015 -Rd 5 -137 - Dominik Simon
2015 -Rd 5 -139 - Christian Jaros
2015 -Rd 5 -149 - Adam Gaudette
2014 -Rd 4 -97 - Lucas Wallmark
2014 -Rd 4 -108 - Devon Toews
2014 -Rd 4 -112 - Viktor Arvidsson
2014 -Rd 4 -116 - Dan Heinen
2014 -Rd 4 -118 - Igor Shestyorkin
2014 -Rd 5 -146 - Anders Bjork
2014 -Rd 5 -146 - Sammy Blais
Brett Berard, Emil Heineman falling to 111 would be unexpected but I’d be thrilled if we got one. I think the MHL is underdrafted and had a great year. I like the league quite a bit after realizing they have full games for free on YouTube. I really like Ivan Didkovsky, Dmitry Zlodeyev, Maxim Beryozkin, and Yegor Chinakov from that league.
It's such a hard league to scout because of the disparity between teams.
That's very true. Before the league sanctioned out 2nd round pick, I took to watching some SKA-1946 games on YouTube because I wanted to get a closer look at Marat Khustnutdinov. They're one of those stacked teams. They had only five regulation losses in 64 games last season, which is laughable. So I see your point. But watching games against Dynamo Moscow (not a powerhouse) I did notice the play of Didkovsky and Zlodeyev who stood out in really positive ways. I also watched Coyotes draft pick Alexander Daryin playing for Loko (a powerhouse) and he looked great, but his teammate Maxim Beryozkin really stood out.
I never would have bothered if it weren't for the COVID break, but I found myself really enjoying these games despite them being asynchronous, and broadcast in a language I don't speak (though, I'd prefer any two Russians over our TV crew, but that's another story). Much better pace of play and much more physical than I expected.
I finally understood why there are so many undrafted Russian free agents that teams end up competing for when they're in their early twenties. I know Chayka tried hard and narrowly missed out on the likes of Mikheyev, Barabanov, and Zub. These guys were in Russian Jrs in their draft years.
Responding to a question about Kuemper by immediately mentioning the missing 1st round picks seems telling to me. Can we assume he’s gently preparing us that Kuemper is going to recoup picks?
Possibly, but he also said they need to balance the desire to acquire picks with the desire to field a competitive team. Darcy is currently their best chance at fielding (icing) a competitive team.
Do you know where Capo is at in his recovery? Do you think he is a future top-4 d-man here? His name has fallen off a lot of lists of prospects, but I think he plugs right in if OEL, Goligoski, or Hjammer leave through trades.
Not sure he's ready for a top-4 role just yet, but I think he has a good shot at being in the regular rotation this season. He has fully recovered from his ACL surgery and rehab.
What's the value of trading Raanta and Hall's rights to Calgary? Can we get their #1?
That seems unlikely.
Have you spoken to Hall about where he might want to go?
Craig, thanks for this. One question...
Do you get the sense that Oel has asked for a trade or is this primarily all ownership wanting out of that contract?
I think ownership wanting to move on precipitated OEL wanting to move on.
I get the sense Armstrong wouldn't have gone down this path of moving OEL were it now for ownership having Sullivan make calls around the league to gauge value for the incoming GM before Armstrong got here. It feels kind of like he's saddled with making the move now despite his hesitations because of potentially burned bridges.
Firing Tocchet would get him out of it. Which seems sensible, given his poor performance so far and with only 1 year left in his deal. Why trade a long-term player over a coach who's unlikely to be with us this time next year?
Why is ownership dictating which players should and shouldn’t be on the roster? Especially for an ownership group who insists they aren’t hockey people. Do they not like paying big bonus’ rather than salary spread out over a season? This seems overreaching and sounds like Buffalo 2.0
Do you get the sense that the Coyotes are willing to go below market value to move OEL? Everyone in Vancouver on reddit and twitter seem convinced that they will be getting him for cents on the dollar due to his large contract.
I wouldn't go that far. BA knows he can't devalue that asset if he hopes to jumpstart a rebuild. They may not get full value because of this crazy market, but cents on the dollar would be a mistake.
Good to know, thanks for the response!
It's a really tough spot for Armstrong.
I’m assuming that when people say they like Boston’s prospects more than Vancouver’s, they mean that they like the available prospects more. Assuming each team a prospect or two that is untouchable (Podkolzin, Hoglander and Studnicka). Meaning the remaining Boston prospects (Vaakanainen and Beecher) are more appealing than the remaining Vancouver prospects (Juolevi and Rathbone)?
To an extent, but you have to really press/explore options to find out which prospects are truly untouchable.
Few, if any are truly untouchable....for the right price.....NY got Adam Fox and he had a fabulous year. Became available because they had so much depth in that position. As a RHD it had to be tough to let that asset go. They don't grow on trees like flashy wingers seem to
If we undersell on OEL, we can thank that cancer behind the bench. Amazing how much lasting damage he's doing to this team.
Are the Coyotes looking to shed some of this salary because of financial issues related to COVID or are we looking to make these moves because of the realization that a rebuild/partial rebuild is necessary? Would we be looking to trade OEL and Kuemper if there was no pandemic and economically Meruelo was as strong as ever?
OEL yes. Kuemps no. Problem with OEL is he was given a leadership role he was not capable of handling. He does not do well in Tochs system (as far as the score sheet goes) and the PP has sucked which is where he has traditionally made some good numbers.
Put him in a different system with different coaching and no C you will find his contract more than bearable
Keeping OEL and getting rid of you know who sounds like the more sensible solution here. Any other team in the league and the coach would be gone.
Who feels like speculating? :)
It’s tough to piece together the tidbits we get from the national Canadian media guys. Or even to know whether they’re worth piecing together. I guess if we’re looking for a young roster player, a prospect, and a pick and we have to eat some cap dumps, we can figure things out if we remove the top prospects from each organization from the equation.
And when we factor in some tidbits from the Coyotes. We know Armstrong wants to get bigger and harder to play against. He wants culture changers. I listened to a really in-depth podcast interview with Plandowski recently. Tons of good insight there. He seems to really like Finns. Especially Finnish blueliners.
From Boston I really doubt Carlo is available in a deal like this. I’d be shocked. I could see DeBrusk, though. Jeremy Lauzon is a mean and nasty young defenseman with pretty limited upside. I could see Nick Ritchie as a cap dump. Boston cannot be happy with his terrible play in the bubble. But for us he’s as big and mean as they get these days. Boston doesn’t have a 1st this year, but they have Urho Vaakanainen who is a Finnish defenseman.
Perhaps OEL and Fischer (contract slot) for DeBrusk, Lauzon, Ritchie(dump) and Vaakanainen?
Vancouver has Virtanen as a DeBrusk roster player comparable. They’ve got Roussel as a Ritchie comparable as far as a cap dump. Juolevi is a good Vaakanainen comparable for Finnish D prospects. Closest roster D comparable to Lauzon is Stetcher, who’s much less appealing. Maybe we could get Rathbone instead, if we are willing to eat another bad contract like Baertschi. Vancouver also is without a 1st this year.
Maybe OEL and Fischer (contract slot) for Virtanen, Roussel, Baertschi, Rathbone and Juolevi?
I certainly wouldn't call Debrusk and Virtanen Comparable. Debrusk >>> Virtanen
I think Rick Tocchet would also take DeBrusk over Virtanen.
I like DeBrusk more if I’m starting a team from scratch. If I’ve already got a small, skilled, but easy to beat team like the Coyotes, Virtanen closes the gap pretty quick. It’s a close call for me.
Virtanen is definitely a terrific skater, but he has a well earned reputation as a one way player. He would drive Tocchet berserk.
That’s true. Virtanen has plenty of warts. I think DeBrusk does too. I see them as highly comparable. DeBrusk has more pure skill and had proven more with better opportunities. Virtanen has more physicality and has been surprisingly productive with limited opportunities. In a vacuum, I take DeBrusk. Given the context of the Coyotes issues with a small, soft roster, I find it a bit of a close call. Ultimately I’d likely take DeBrusk gambling on upside. But Virtanen helps more immediately in the area we need, I think.
They are the same age. Over the last two seasons:
DeBrusk: 1696 minutes 5v5 29 goals, 49 points with favorable zone starts and quality linemates.
Virtanen: 1707 minutes 5v5 22 goals, 45 points with even zone splits against with worse linemates.
DeBrusk has more pure skill and can dipsey doodle better. The Coyotes already have too much of that. Virtanen is bigger, meaner, and much more direct and forceful in his game. He hits like a truck and fights. DeBrusk plays with swagger but is small and weak.
Having watched both teams quite a bit to me it's that Virtanen has too many nights as a passenger where he doesn't contribute anything. Then games where he comes in an gets 2 goals and an assist or whatever. I like that Debrusk is more consistent.